Companies in the space sector are turning to areas such as satellites, communications, robotics and spacecraft to reduce their dependence on low-margin launch operations. Only 8% of SpaceX’s $12.5 billion in revenue in the first half of 2026 came from launch services, while 5% came from “launch and development” activities; the remaining revenue was generated by Starlink and AI. A quarter of Rocket Lab’s $434 million in revenue in the first half of 2026 came from launch services.
By contrast, United Launch Alliance (ULA), a 50-50 joint venture established by Boeing and Lockheed Martin in 2006, grew during a period of public support and limited competition. Following a lawsuit filed by SpaceX in 2014 over its right to bid for military launch contracts, the Pentagon allowed the company to enter the bids in 2015. SpaceX’s winning of its first priority military launch contract in 2016 marked the beginning of ULA’s long-term decline.
ULA began developing the Vulcan rocket to replace the Atlas V and Delta IV; however, reusability was not prioritized in the design. The rocket’s first flight was delayed until early 2024, more than four years behind the 2019 target. Testing and certification delays involving Blue Origin’s BE-4 engine, along with an explosion in the Centaur upper stage in 2023, extended the process further. Similar failures occurred in the nozzle of the Northrop Grumman-built solid-fuel booster during Vulcan’s second flight in October 2024 and its fourth flight last February. Following the latest incident, the rocket has been grounded for more than six months. ULA aims to fly Vulcan again with Amazon Leo satellites at the end of this month while the investigation continues; however, the U.S. Space Force has not yet approved the rocket for military payloads.
The price of Vulcan missions rose from $112 million to more than $200 million. Lockheed Martin’s earnings from ULA declined from $325 million (2016) to $100 million (2022). In May, Boeing and Lockheed Martin each provided a $500 (million) guarantee for ULA’s credit facilities. According to Bloomberg, ULA is considering raising $1.5 billion.
The company’s owners tried to sell ULA for approximately $5 billion but failed to find a buyer; the potential price is now believed to be below the $2 billion to $3 billion range. Blue Origin, Amazon, Northrop Grumman, L3Harris, private equity firms and AST SpaceMobile are among the potential candidates. ULA has an order backlog of approximately 80 missions. The future of the company, under new CEO Mark Peller, depends on Vulcan’s return flight and finding a buyer capable of developing a reusable rocket.
Why it matters
ULA’s decline is not merely a company financing problem; it raises the question of how competition in the US military launch capacity will take shape. The fact that Vulcan cannot be approved for military missions until its technical problems are resolved stands out as the key uncertainty preventing the company’s approximately 80-mission order backlog from immediately turning into revenue. Rising costs per launch and the owners’ loan guarantees show ULA’s need for external financing to continue its operations. The fact that the parties mentioned as potential buyers come from different sectors indicates that a potential buyer will be expected not only to provide capital but also to make decisions regarding reusability and Vulcan’s technical schedule. The remaining question is whether a funding and technology plan capable of preserving ULA’s current military role can be established under a new ownership structure.