Washington tightened restrictions on foreign-produced advanced robotic systems in July and August and imposed high tariffs on imported drones and components on national security grounds. The drone tariffs will take effect in September, while the additional component tariffs will enter into force in 2027. The FCC Covered List, created in 2021, initially covered the telecommunications and surveillance equipment of companies such as Huawei, ZTE and Hikvision, and was later expanded to include foreign-produced drones and advanced robots.
These steps come as Chinese companies have taken the lead in drones and humanoid robots thanks to their production scale and low-cost advantage. According to Counterpoint, humanoid robot shipments reached 22,000 units in the first half of this year, and the vast majority came from Chinese manufacturers. The world’s five largest humanoid robot manufacturers by shipments in the first half were all Chinese: AgiBot, Unitree, Galbot, UBTECH and Leju Robotics; these companies accounted for 86% of global shipments.
According to TDK Ventures Investment Director Ankur Saxena, the U.S. is superior in artificial intelligence, software and semiconductor innovation, while China has the advantage in production scale, supply chain depth and cost. Chinese manufacturers develop more components in-house and benefit from the country’s existing manufacturing infrastructure. Lower prices can enable robots to be used on a wider scale, which in turn can help improve the technology with real-world data and drive costs down further. Saxena said that sanctions would not eliminate the cost advantage and that long-term investments in manufacturing would be needed for that.
Even if Chinese companies lose access to the U.S. market, they can turn to their large domestic market and markets with labor shortages in Europe, Southeast Asia, Latin America and the Middle East. Humanoid robot manufacturers are expected to achieve scale in China, expand into foreign markets and establish local production over time.
In the drone sector, meanwhile, the U.S.-led market based on U.S.-made and NDAA-compliant systems is said to be diverging from the China-led market based on low-cost, high-volume production. The U.S. and its allies may compete not in consumer drones, but in long-range autonomous systems for defense and critical infrastructure. Competition is expected to shift toward batteries, energy systems and the equipment they carry.
Japan, South Korea and Taiwan could be alternative production hubs; however, they cannot replace China’s weight in the global supply chain on their own. Ultimately, rather than a divided sector, regional markets are expected to grow stronger.
Why It Matters
These regulations affect not only the entry of products into the drone and humanoid robot markets, but also which regions will concentrate production scale, supply chains and cost advantages. The U.S. and its allies turning toward systems focused on security and critical infrastructure is laying the groundwork for the emergence of a market structure different from China-centered low-cost, high-volume production. However, the ability of Chinese companies to access their large domestic market and various regional markets shows that the restrictions will not, on their own, eliminate China’s production advantage. The key open question, therefore, is to what extent hubs such as Japan, South Korea and Taiwan can offset China’s weight in the supply chain and how competition in batteries, energy systems and other components will take shape.
Background
China is not a new name in the FikirPilot archive: we published a news article mentioning this name in the last 90 days; that article is dated August 30, 2026.
Term: supply chain
A supply chain is the entire set of production and transportation links through which a product passes from raw materials to the end user.