The September Market Participants Survey conducted by TCMB, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye, with 67 participants showed that the September CPI expectation rose to 2.12%, the year-end expectation to 29.61%, the 12-month-ahead expectation to 23.70%, and the 24-month-ahead expectation to 18.32%. While the year-end dollar/TRY expectation fell to 51.5716, the 12-month-ahead expectation rose to 58.6049. Year-end and next year’s current account deficit expectations stood at 50.1 billion dollars and 44 billion 368 million dollars, respectively. GSYH growth expectations declined to 3% and 3.9%. Policy rate expectations were projected at 37%, 36% and 35.07% for the first three meetings, and at 29.22% 12 months later.
Why it matters
The survey shows that market participants have formed expectations in different directions not under a single heading, but across the inflation, exchange rate, current account balance, growth and interest rate outlooks. Because rising inflation expectations and declining growth forecasts appear in the same picture, the survey highlights the importance of the balance between price stability and economic activity for policymaking. The divergence in interest rate expectations across periods indicates that participants view the process ahead for monetary policy within the framework of a gradual change. Rather than offering a direct conclusion regarding TCMB’s decisions, the data make visible the expectations environment in which those decisions are being shaped. The open question is whether these changes in expectations will prove lasting in subsequent surveys and whether the divergence across different indicators will continue.