Tesla delivered 486 thousand 532 vehicles in the third quarter, exceeding analysts’ expectations of 456 thousand 896 vehicles by 29 thousand 636. The July-September result, supported by a recovery in Europe, strengthened the company’s prospects of ending its two-year sales decline. Shares rose more than 5% in early trading on Friday, despite having fallen by approximately one-fifth since the beginning of the year.
Tesla needs to deliver at least 311 thousand 448 vehicles in the fourth quarter to match last year’s total deliveries and avoid a third consecutive annual decline. Sales were expected to fall below last year’s record because the $7 thousand 500 federal tax credit in the United States was set to expire at the end of September 2025. Analysts raised their 2026 delivery forecast from 1.65 million to 1.82 million. The company will report its financial results on October 21.
According to ACEA data, registrations in the EU increased by approximately two-thirds in the January-August period; increases in France and Denmark supported the recovery. FSD software was approved in eight European countries. While Tesla’s autonomous taxis lagged behind Waymo, Cybercab was added to the service for the Austin fleet in Texas and Florida.
Why it matters
The result is influencing assessments of whether Tesla can halt its two-year sales decline; the company’s annual performance now depends particularly on demand in the final quarter. The end of the federal tax credit in the United States is bringing the question of what will support sales in the final part of the year to the forefront, making the durability of the increase in registrations in Europe more important. Analysts’ upward revision of their 2026 delivery forecast is also fueling debate over whether the current recovery is merely temporary. In addition, the expansion of FSD approvals in Europe and Tesla’s lagging behind Waymo in autonomous taxi services show that Tesla’s growth will be assessed not only through vehicle sales but also through software and new services; the financial results will shed light on these issues.
Background
Tesla is not a new name in the FikirPilot archive: we have published 31 news reports mentioning the name in the last 90 days; the latest is dated October 2, 2026.