According to TÜİK, the CPI rose by 1.84% month on month and 29.73% year on year in September. The increase was 24.32% from the beginning of the year and 31.49% based on 12-month averages. The annual increase reached 27.62% in food, 35.10% in transport, and 39.99% in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels. The contributions were 6.73, 5.96 and 4.84 percentage points, respectively. While food declined by 0.20% month on month, transport rose by 2.79% and housing by 2.71%; the contributions were minus 0.05, 0.49 and 0.33 percentage points. Prices rose in 133 of the 174 groups, declined in 35 and remained unchanged in 6. The B indicator rose by 2.01% month on month and 29% year on year; it increased by 23.40% from the beginning of the year and stood at 30.80% based on 12-month averages. The average expectation was 2.18%.
Why it matters
The data show that price pressures diverged markedly among spending groups in September: while food declined, transport and housing items moved above the overall increase. This means that the cost faced by consumers varies not only according to the overall CPI rate but also according to their spending distribution. The spread of price increases across most of the 174 groups indicates that the monthly decline was offset by movements in a limited number of items. The core indicator’s different course from the headline figure and the fact that the actual reading came in below expectations make it necessary to monitor the price trend by component; the open question is whether the decline in food will continue and how increases in housing and transport will develop in the coming months.