The UN Security Council held its fifth informal straw poll to determine the successor to Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, whose term expires on December 31. In a closed session, the 15 members evaluated 7 candidates. Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan is leading the race.
According to diplomatic sources, the results are as follows:
- Rebeca Grynspan: 9 “in favor”, 6 “against”
- Rafael Grossi: 6 “in favor”, 7 “against”, 2 “abstained”
- Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett: 5 “in favor”, 9 “against”, 1 “abstained”
- Macky Sall: 5 “in favor”, 10 “against”
- Olara Otunnu: 3 “in favor”, 12 “against”
- Maria Fernanda Espinosa: 3 “in favor”, 9 “against”, 3 “abstained”
- Ivonne Baki: 0 “in favor”, 14 “against”, 1 “abstained”
Aglaia Balta, the rotating president of the BMGK, announced that the candidates would be informed of the results through the representatives of the countries that nominated them, and that the president of the UN General Assembly would also be notified.
In the initial rounds, all members use the same ballot, so votes carry equal weight; however, in later rounds the process shifts to a color-coded system in which permanent members are given “red” ballots and elected members “white” ones. Sources say the sixth round on October 16 could be color-coded.
A candidate must receive at least 9 “yes” votes and must not be blocked by a veto from the US, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, or France. The successor to Portugal’s Guterres, who has served two terms since 2016, is expected to be determined by December at the latest and, following General Assembly approval, to take office on January 1, 2027, for a five-year term.
Why it matters
Rebeca Grynspan, who appears to be in the lead, has 9 “yes” votes, exactly matching the minimum threshold required for election; however, since all votes carry equal weight at this stage, it is not known whether her support includes the five permanent members holding veto power, and that is what will ultimately determine the outcome. If the sixth round on October 16 moves to the color-coded system, the votes of the permanent members will be distinguished, and it will be tested at that point whether Grynspan’s lead rests on a genuine majority or on a temporary distribution. Because the balloting is secret and who supported whom is not disclosed, it also remains an open question where the votes of the remaining six candidates will shift as the race narrows. Since the process is expected to be completed by December and the new secretary-general is expected to take office on January 1, 2027, for a five-year term, candidates’ decisions to withdraw and the stance of the permanent members will shape the outcome in the coming weeks. The current picture is therefore less a result than a sign of the axis along which the negotiations will proceed.