The consumer confidence index rose by 1.3% month on month in September to 91.9, reaching its highest level since July 2018. While the household’s current financial situation index declined by 0.1% to 75.3, the household’s financial situation expectations rose to 93.7, expectations for the general economic situation increased to 89.8, and the intention to spend on durable consumer goods climbed to 108.8.
Why it matters
The subcomponents of the index show a divergence between households’ assessments of current conditions and their evaluations of the future. The rise in expectations for the financial situation and the general economy, despite the limited decline in the current financial situation, indicates that the increase was supported more by the expectations components than by current income conditions. The rise in the intention to spend on durable consumer goods also highlights the part of the recovery in consumer confidence linked to the propensity to spend. Therefore, the aspect of the data that should be monitored is the extent to which the improvement in expectations will align with households’ perceptions of their current financial situation; meanwhile, since the published index is calculated in cooperation with TÜİK and the Central Bank, it enables consumer trends to be assessed together.