Will the elections in Israel lead to a change in the country’s Middle East policy? Ahead of the elections to be held in Israel on October 27, the question of how a possible change of government would affect Tel Aviv’s policies is being debated within the country. According to Reuters, in addition to the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon, the conflicts in Iran have permanently hardened the country’s security policies. The security line has hardened. His former adviser Aviv Bushinsky says that if Netanyahu is re-elected, current policies could be pursued more aggressively. Palestinian analyst Gassan Katib, for his part, believes the policy of opposing a two-state solution and expanding illegal settlements will continue. This view persists. Joost Hiltermann of the International Crisis Group draws attention to the risk of a broader uprising in the West Bank. In the security doctrine he unveiled on October 18, Netanyahu had stressed that conditions would be created for the collapse of the regime in Iran. A coalition is needed to form a government. Of the 38 parties in the 120-seat parliament, at most 15 are expected to pass the 3.25 percent threshold. According to the BBC, the Arab parties are in a pivotal position. The Joint List announced it is ready to offer conditional support. The opposition led by Gadi Eisenkot refusing to form a government with the Arab parties complicates coalition calculations.
Why it matters
Whatever the outcome of the election, no sharp turn is expected in Israel’s regional policy; the conflicts along the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran lines have hardened the security line across the political spectrum. That is why the real question on October 27 is not the direction of policy, but who will come to power with which coalition. Netanyahu’s return could mean a more aggressive implementation of the current course; even under an opposition government, there is no sign of change on the two-state solution or settlement policies. The parliamentary arithmetic puts the Arab parties in a pivotal position, but the opposition led by Eisenkot refusing to form a government with them narrows the alternative scenarios. The open question is the West Bank: analysts point to the risk of the tension turning into a broader uprising.
Background
Israel is not a new name in the FikirPilot archive: over the last 90 days we have published 21 stories featuring this name; the most recent is dated October 21, 2026.