Tense anticipation continues in the Middle East: “Things could spiral out of control at any moment,” it is being said. According to Iranian officials, Tehran aims to raise energy prices by using the Strait of Hormuz and increase pressure on Trump until the US midterm elections on November 3. Tehran’s goal is to increase the pressure. An Arab diplomat who spoke to The Washington Post said the Iranians believe they can “bring down the presidency.”
According to sources, the Revolutionary Guards carried out an average of 30 attacks per week around Hormuz in September, while the UKMTO reports that more than 20 vessels have been targeted since the beginning of this month. Tehran reported at least 122 violations. Tehran claimed that a US-owned MQ-9 drone was shot down. US officials, meanwhile, state that the American military protects ship traffic in the strait with daily operations.
While Iranian media featured commentary that a Republican defeat could disrupt Trump’s conduct of the war, Trump announced his support for Netanyahu ahead of the Israeli elections on October 27. Vance, for his part, said he would not get involved. While Netanyahu’s new security doctrine aims to create conditions for the collapse of the regime in Iran, JTA wrote that comprehensive attacks on Iran could be carried out after the elections. There is no lasting agreement. Israeli expert Avner Vilan stated that there is no lasting agreement and that things could spiral out of control with a single incident.
Why it matters
The significance of the tension lies in the conflict being tied directly to the election calendars of the two countries. Tehran’s plan to push energy prices up in Hormuz aims to present Trump with a political bill through the pockets of American voters who will head to the polls on November 3; for Iranian media openly writes that a Republican defeat could disrupt the war. The tempo, which reached an average of 30 attacks per week in September and in which more than 20 ships have been targeted this month, shows that the risk has become routine for the shipping and trade actors using this route. Washington’s daily operations in the strait keep alive the possibility that a single miscalculation could turn into mutual escalation. In the absence of a lasting agreement, the real question is how much control the parties can maintain while comprehensive attack scenarios for after October 27 are being discussed.
Background
MIDDLE EAST is not a new name in the FikirPilot archive: we have published 2 stories mentioning this name in the last 90 days; the most recent one is dated September 8, 2026.