Significant political shifts are taking place among Sunni political and social circles in Iraq, driven by the domestic debate over the “disarmament of militias” and the impact of increasingly volatile conditions resulting from the Iran-US war. A senior Sunni source said intensive preparations were underway for a new political movement that would include figures and forces marginalized and excluded in recent years under pressure from Iran.
Sunni circles believe the current atmosphere is more reassuring for them. After Iran forced Shiite factions that had been at odds for a long time to comply with the central system and its strategic decisions, traditional divisions spread to Shiite circles as well. As cracks within the “Coordination Framework” became visible, the premiership came to be viewed as a tool for concealing disputes.
Iran’s open conflict with the United States is affecting its options in Iraq and the previous consensus based on limiting Sunni forces. The economic slowdown triggered by a sharp decline in oil exports could push groups aligned with the central authority into opposition and weaken sectarian alignments. The economic crisis could increase cross-sectarian partnerships, while the government and major economic actors may turn toward regional countries.
Why it matters
This table indicates that, alongside sectarian balances in Iraqi politics, economic conditions and external conflicts have also become decisive. The new political movement being prepared reflects the search by Sunni actors, who have been marginalized in recent years under Iran’s influence, to return to the political arena; for this reason, the development is important not only for existing Sunni structures but also for Shiite circles and the central government. The impact of the Iran-US conflict in Iraq is making the sustainability of previous political agreements and power limitations uncertain. The economic slowdown deepening with the decline in oil exports, meanwhile, could create a basis for partnerships that transcend sectarian boundaries. However, it is unclear how the new movement will take shape and whether the divisions within Shiite circles will produce lasting political consequences.
Background
Iraq is not a new name in the FikirPilot archive: we have published 2 reports mentioning this name in the last 90 days; the most recent is dated September 2, 2026.