According to ACLED, violent incidents in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger rose from 63 in 2016 to 2 thousand 845 in 2025. While 2 thousand 145 incidents were recorded in 2026, the total is expected to exceed 3 thousand if the trend continues. While deaths from global terrorist attacks are at their lowest level since 2008, an increase is being seen in the Sahel; the UN reported that more than 9 thousand people were killed in security incidents in 2025.
In Mali, attacks by CNIM and FLA in April targeted strategic cities, security forces and Russian mercenaries; Defense Minister Sadio Camara was killed in an attack on his home in Kati. While CNIM is expanding its influence in Mali, it claimed responsibility for more than 130 attacks in Burkina Faso and at least 17 in Niger; ISGS was more active in Niger. ISIS-linked groups are also active in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Mozambique, Chad and Nigeria. Al-Shabaab-linked violence, active in rural Somalia, has caused more than 10 thousand deaths over the past 18 months. According to Ulf Laessing, Africa has become al-Qaeda’s main theater of operations.
Background
Al-Qaeda is not a new name in the FikirPilot archive: over the past 90 days, we have published 2 reports mentioning the name; the latest is dated September 13, 2026.