Are Washington and Tehran heading toward a new round of war? The article, which notes that since Tucydides state behavior has been explained by the motives of fear, self-interest, and honor, argues that these motives are taking new forms in the American-Israeli-Iranian conflict. The motives have changed form. In October 2025, Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu aimed to define Iran’s missile program as a threat to American territory as well, and this approach converged with statements by US Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Subsequently, President Donald Trump moved to resolve the Gaza issue in order to focus on Iran.
The picture is now broader. Recent developments go beyond the round of mutual threats, bringing to the agenda the military preparations the US has been carrying out through bomb and weapons transfers to the region. Communication and internet outages are occurring inside Iran. The emergence of the possibility of a new attack ahead of the US midterm elections and the Israeli elections constitutes another dimension of the developments.
Tehran’s conviction is clear. Tehran holds the conviction that Washington and Tel Aviv are planning a limited war and a swift victory. Iranian rhetoric has shifted from deterrence to operational readiness. The Commander of the Hatemül Enbiya Headquarters emphasized that the flames of a new war would reach everyone, and Tehran warned the International Atomic Energy Agency against making unfounded statements. A message of resolve was delivered. Foreign Minister Abbas Arakçi said that Iran is determined to defend itself. Iranian media relays warnings that the next mistake could lead to “bigger surprises.” The possibility is still on the table. According to the article, the possibility of war cannot be dismissed, and the communication outages in Tehran stand out as an indicator that must be monitored.
Background
Washington is not a new name in the FikirPilot archive: in the last 90 days we have published 2 reports featuring this name; the most recent is dated October 7, 2026.